Results of a new poll conducted by KABC/SurveyUSA were spread. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 59.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 28 among 732 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 61.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.