Results of a new poll conducted by Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe were released. The poll asked participants from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5. A total of 500 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.