Results of a new poll conducted by FOX 13/Opinion Savvy were released on October 3. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to September 29. A total of 619 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Clinton at 51.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.