Detroit NewsDetroit News published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Detroit NewsDetroit News poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. In comparison to her numbers in the Detroit NewsDetroit News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.