Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often gained similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Emerson poll results
The results show that former First Lady Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump have the exact same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between October 2 and October 4. The sample size was 700 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.7%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Clinton has 1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.