NBC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 9. A total of 2332 participants responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 52.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.