Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 2 among 400 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump. In the latest Monmouth poll on July 12 Clinton received 57.8%, while Trump received only 42.2%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 54.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Colorado. In comparison to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.