Results of a new poll carried out by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's prediction is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.