Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 with 545 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may include substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 48.2% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on July 11, for Trump this number was 51.9%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.6%. Relative to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.