Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 2 and October 4. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 49.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 46.8% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.