Results of a new poll administered by JMC Analytics were circulated. The poll asked participants from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24. A total of 905 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. On May 6 Clinton received only 40.9% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump received 59.1%.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.1%. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.