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Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models often include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, you should look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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