Results of a new poll carried out by The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Illinois for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who responded, 53.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2, among a random sample of 865 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the combined PollyVote is 8.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.