Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 among 1000 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. On April 11 Clinton received only 54.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump received 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.