Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, both candidates have the exact same level of support, each with 40.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 4 with 1246 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. For comparison: 51.2% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on July 8, for Trump this result was only 48.8%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 54.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Colorado. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 4.5 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Clinton has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Colorado. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.