NBC/WSJ released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC/WSJ poll results
Of those who replied, 52.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from October 8 to October 9 with 447 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.7 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/WSJ poll on August 3 Clinton obtained only 44.7%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll Clinton's poll average is 4.6 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 5.1 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.