CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 5 to October 7 with 997 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. In the most recent CBS News/YouGov poll on September 2 Clinton obtained only 45.1%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.4%. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.