As of today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.7% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.3% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.1%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.2% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.9% of the vote.
In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.5% in index models is particularly low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, index models predicted a vote share of 53.4% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.