Results of a new poll carried out by OH Predictive Insights were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Arizona for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
The results show that former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump have equal levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to September 30 with 718 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 49.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.4 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.8% and Trump 53.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 3.2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.