Results of a new national poll administered by YouGov/Economist were released. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
YouGov/Economist poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was conducted between October 7 and October 8. The sample size was 1135 participants. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.2% was obtained by Clinton in the YouGov/Economist poll on September 24, for Trump this number was 47.8%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. This value is 0 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the YouGov/Economist poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.