OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.