Politico/Morning Consult released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Politico/Morning Consult poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out from October 8 to October 8 with 1549 participants. The sampling error is +/-2.5 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Politico/Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.