Detroit Free Press published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 1 and October 3. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.9%. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.