Results of a new poll administered by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's forecast is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.