Results of a new national poll carried out by UPI/CVOTER were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from September 30 to October 6 among 1250 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on September 27 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.5%. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.1 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.