KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 59.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28. A total of 732 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 61.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.