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Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 45.7%.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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