Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.5%. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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