Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead
The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.5%. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.