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Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 45.7%.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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