The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 45.7%.
Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.