Results of a new poll carried out by LorasLoras were published. The poll asked respondents from Iowa for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Iowa is traditionally a battleground state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often won similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
LorasLoras poll results
The results show that the two candidates can draw on identical levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from September 20 to September 22, among a random sample of 491 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 47.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Iowa. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.7 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% and Trump 49.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.6 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.