The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 49.4%.
In Iowa, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts. The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa.