In the latest update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.4% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.1%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 52.6% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.9% of the vote.
In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 52.6% in aggregated polls is particularly high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,combined polls predicted a vote share of 54.0% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.