538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.7%. In comparison, on October 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.