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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.7%. In comparison, on October 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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