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Vox.Com model: Trump is in the lead


The Vox.Com model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they may contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

The Vox.Com model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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