LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 7 among 2632 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. On October 6 Clinton obtained 48.9% in the LA Times poll and Trump obtained only 51.1%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 47.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 4.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.