Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead
The Trial-heat model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.3%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Trial-heat model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.