The Time-for-change model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.
The Time-for-change model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.