Time-for-change model: Trump is in the lead

The Time-for-change model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

The Time-for-change model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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