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Primary model shows Trump in the lead


The Primary model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.1%. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.

The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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