As of today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.4% for Trump.
What Polly's component methods say
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.1%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 52.5% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.9% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 7.4 percentage points.
Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 53.4% in prediction markets is noticeably low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,prediction markets predicted a vote share of 47.9% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.