OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.5%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.