FOX published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX poll results
The results show that 49.0% of interviewees would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29. A total of 911 participants responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote.