Detroit Free Press released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 1 to October 3, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Michigan. Compared to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.