Results of a new poll administered by WBUR/MassINC were released. The poll asked respondents from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 60.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 10 with 506 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.