Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were released. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.