Lockerbie model shows Clinton in the lead

The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.