The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.