Lewis-Beck & Tien model shows Clinton in the lead
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.