Keys to the White House model: Trump is in the lead

The Keys to the White House model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 50.3%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual index model. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Trump at 46.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Trump's index model average is 3.8 percentage points worse.

The Keys to the White House model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Trump are thus 3.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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