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Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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