Fiscal model model shows Trump in the lead

The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.