The Fair model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 56.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single models can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 8.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.