Fair model shows Trump in the lead

The Fair model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 8.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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